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  • 30Jul

      假設有一名旅行團的領隊,帶領著數十人在一個風光如畫的小島度假。一眾團友正在享受著陽光與海灘的樂趣︰或是游泳、或是釣魚、或是燒烤,到處紛呈著歡欣的景象。

      然而,領隊這時收到消息,謂在數百公里外的海洋上,一股颱風正在形成,並有可能吹向他們所在的小島。

      不過,由於颱風還未發展成熟,將來的動向也未明朗,為了不破壞團友的興緻,這名領隊選擇不向眾人透露這項消息。

      可是過了不久,氣象部門的最新消息顯示,這股颱風正在迅速增強,並開始向小島所在的方向移動。領隊知道情況不妙,立刻致電所屬的旅行社尋求指示。然而,鑑於旅行團預定了在小島逗留四天,而如今只是過了一天。要把團友撤退並另外安排住宿和行程,既會引起團友的不滿,亦會令旅行社蒙受很大的損失。在權衡利害之後,旅行社的高層決定維持原有安排,並著令領隊不要把消息散佈,以免引起恐慌。

      如是者又過了一天。氣象部門的消息傳來,這股颱風已增強成為一股前所未見那麼猛烈的「超強颱風」,而且正逕向小島所在之處高速移動。

      領隊再向高層請示。但高層的決定是︰由於氣象部門的預測不一定準確,颱風稍後可能會急速轉彎吹向別處,又或是未抵達小島之前便已減弱甚至消散,因此仍然毋須疏散團友。按照旅行社的精算師計算,即使颱風真的來襲並導致某些團友蒙受損失,但對這些損失所作出的賠償,仍然會低於疏散整個旅行團的成本。

      然而,某些團友這時已收到一些有關的消息而開始憂慮起來。旅行社得悉後一再透過領隊向團友宣稱,「大難將臨」的說法完全是一種不負責任的危言聳聽,科學家對颱風的動向還未有百分之一百的定論云云……

      各位朋友,在上述假想的情況中,你是否認為旅行社的這種做法,是一種既愚蠢又極度不負責任的行為呢?

      不錯,上述的「超強颱風」便是威脅著現今世界安危的「全球暖化」危機。旅行社的決策層便是世界各國的領導人,數十名團友亦即全世界數十億人類。至於旅行團的領隊,便有如深深地影響著輿論取向的大眾傳媒;而盡快疏散所有團友的果斷措施,便等同於盡快取締一切化石燃料的使用。

      全世界的經濟學家都會告訴我們,「取締化石燃料」將對全球經濟帶來沉重的打擊。可是他們絕少進一步推論,繼續大量燃燒化石燃料所帶來的氣候和環境災變,其引致的經濟損失極可能較「取締化石燃料」大上十倍甚至百倍。尤有甚者,這裡牽涉的已不是純粹的經濟損失,而是巨大的人命傷亡和人道災難。

      正如在上述的例子裡,領隊告訴團友們可以繼續「水照游、魚照釣」。請告訴筆者,這不是歷史上最大的蒙騙是甚麼?

      當然,筆者可能真的在危言聳聽也說不定。所以,請大家不要相信筆者。在這個如此重大的問題之前,你必須要盡量考察一切有關的證據,然後作出你自己的判斷。

      如果你最後作出的判斷與筆者的一樣,那麼筆者有一個要求︰請你把這個訊息透過一切可能找到的渠道宣揚開去。時間真的已經無多了。

    Posted by Eddy WC Lee @ 12:12 pm

2 Responses

WP_Cloudy
  • Bob Behull Says:

    Dear Eddy,

    Glad to see that you keep writing on critical issues.Climate change or global warming is clearly a life-and-death issue for the human race and our survival.

    More recently, we have seen a spate of books by a number of scientists that are skeptical of man-made global warming. These books cover not only ‘Climategate’, but also the empirical science behind the claims.

    What do you make of these objections? Maybe you could recommend a few books or articles that take on board the skeptics and their counter-arguments. It would be helpful especially for readers who are not scientists but who would like clarification
    on issues that even scientists do not seem to agree upon.

    Regards,

    Bob

  • Eddy Lee (李逆熵) Says:

    Dear Bob,

    Yes, now that Obama has finished with the twin issues of national health care and the battle on financial regulation, and turning his attention to the climate issue (renewables and green economy), the powerful “denial industry” is revving up into high gear. I’m actually writing a book on climate change right now for the ET Press, which is scheduled to be published shortly after the Mexico Climate Conference at the end of this year. I’ll be posting the finished chapters one-by-one onto this Blog, so that I could get advance comments.

    Meanwhile, the best book on global warming lately must be James Hansen’s “Storms of My Grandchildren”. Another book called “The Bridge at the Edge of the World” by James Gustave Speth is also highly recommended. (If you’re scientifically minded, the book to go for is “With Speed and Violence”.)

    Regards,
    Eddy.

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